Overview

• Betting platforms like Kalshi have raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 to 56%, up significantly from the start of the year.
• A recent survey shows 62% of U.S. CEOs expect a recession within six months, citing trade war impacts and declining consumer demand.
• President Trump’s tariff policies, including sweeping new duties and exemptions, have heightened market volatility and economic uncertainty.
• Consumer sentiment has dropped sharply, with the University of Michigan’s index hitting its lowest level since 2022 at 50.4 in April.
• The White House continues to deny recession risks, with officials asserting that the U.S. economy will avoid contraction this year.