Recession Fears Grow as Market Odds and CEO Confidence Hit Lows

Betting markets now see a 56% chance of a U.S. recession in 2025, while CEO confidence and GDP projections signal mounting economic challenges.

Kalshi betting markets estimate a 56% probability of a U.S. recession in 2025, reflecting heightened market concerns.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projects a first-quarter 2025 GDP contraction of -2.8%, indicating potential stagflationary conditions.
A recent survey shows 62% of American CEOs expect a recession within six months, citing ongoing trade tensions as a key factor.
CEO confidence has dropped to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, with April's index falling to 4.6 from 5.0 in March.
Despite these signals, the White House insists a recession is unlikely, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stating the U.S. will '100% not' enter a recession this year.