Overview

• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has dropped nearly 60 basis points since January, reflecting heightened recession fears and investor flight to safety.
• President Donald Trump's recent tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have amplified concerns about economic growth and potential GDP contraction.
• Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have surged, with investors now pricing in up to three reductions by year-end.
• The yield on the 2-year Treasury note hit its lowest level since October, driven by fears of short-term economic impacts and policy uncertainty.
• Global bond markets are also reacting to significant fiscal policy changes in Germany, which are reshaping safe-haven debt dynamics.