Overview
- Five of six recent national surveys compiled by Poder360 report Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a head‑to‑head second round.
- DataTrends, which interviewed 2,000 voters from Oct. 7–9, gives Flávio 53.1% of valid votes versus Lula 46.9% and is consistent with earlier PoderData/Aya findings.
- The polls differ in mode, sample size and field dates so results are snapshots not direct vote projections; differences include phone versus face‑to‑face interviewing and margins of error ranging from about 1 to 2.6 percentage points.
- Political moves that polls aim to capture include endorsements for Flávio from defeated right‑wing candidates and figures such as Ratinho Jr. and support from the Centrão, plus recent shifts in Lula’s campaign messaging.
- A Datafolha survey of 2,520 face‑to‑face interviews will be fielded Oct. 13–15 with results due Oct. 15 and should show whether recent endorsements and campaign changes have altered voter intentions.