Recent Polls Put Flávio Slightly Ahead in Technically Tied Presidential Runoff

Overview

• National compilations published Wednesday, Oct. 21 show multiple post‑first‑round surveys with Flávio Bolsonaro marginally ahead of President Lula while most differences remain inside each poll’s margin of error.
• Realtime Big Data’s state surveys published Oct. 20 place Celina Leão well ahead in the Federal District with 59% versus 41% of valid votes and show tight 52%–48% valid‑vote edges for Allyson in Rio Grande do Norte and Vicentinho in Tocantins.
• Major new national polls released Oct. 21 include Meio/Ideia’s 51.1% to 48.9% on valid votes and Real Time Big Data’s 52% to 48%, with both studies using fieldwork mainly from Oct. 15–19 and margins of error that make the race a technical tie.
• Surveys report high voter consolidation with roughly 80%–94% saying they’ve decided and elevated mutual rejection for both presidential candidates, which makes last‑minute persuasion, vote transfers from eliminated first‑round contenders, and regional turnout decisive.
• The campaign calendar now centers on the Globo debate on Oct. 23, final polls due Oct. 24, and the runoff on Oct. 25 with pollsters, parties and regional campaigns watching whether debate performance or targeted ground efforts shift the small shares of persuadable voters.