Real Strengthens and Rates Drop as 2026 Opens in Brazil, with Ibovespa Hit by China Beef Quotas

Overview

• The dollar closed at R$5.4238, down 1.18%, as the real led global gains supported by Brazil’s high carry and a reversal of late‑2025 risk premia.
• Interest‑rate futures declined across longer tenors, with the Jan‑2027 DI at 13.70% and the Jan‑2031 at 13.33%, signaling reduced political and liquidity premia.
• The Ibovespa fell 0.36% to 160,539, lagging stronger currency and fixed income moves as meatpackers weighed on the index.
• China set a 1.1 million‑tonne annual quota on Brazilian beef with a 55% tariff above that cap, sending Minerva down 6.77% and pressuring sector peers.
• Global equities started 2026 on firm footing on technology and AI optimism, with Europe’s STOXX 600 near records and the Dow and S&P 500 closing higher in New York.