Overview
- Markets widely expect a 25 basis point reduction on Wednesday, taking the official cash rate to about 2.25% and continuing this year’s easing cycle.
- The bank’s OCR tracking map is in focus for signals on 2026, with ANZ noting market pricing for a trough near 2.11% in May and forecasting a bottom around 2.15%–2.20%.
- New Zealand’s economy shrank 0.9% last quarter and unemployment rose to 5.3%, reinforcing calls for further policy support.
- Headline inflation has climbed to about 3.04% with food inflation near 4.7%, prompting warnings that faster cuts could risk a renewed price surge.
- This meeting is the last under Governor Christian Hawkesby, with Anna Breman to become governor on December 1 and deliver her first policy decision in February 2026.