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RBNZ Cuts to 2.25% in Hawkish Move, Signaling End of Easing

Projections point to a hold near 2.25% into early 2026 after an extensive easing campaign.

Overview

  • Policymakers voted 5–1 to lower the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points after debating a hold at 2.50%.
  • The bank’s track shows the OCR around 2.25% in early 2026 and rising toward roughly 2.65% by late 2027, with future decisions tied to medium‑term inflation and growth.
  • Markets quickly priced out deeper cuts as the New Zealand dollar climbed about 1% and two‑year swap rates rose, with some pricing a hike by late 2026.
  • The move follows roughly 325 basis points of easing since mid‑2024 to counter a weak economy and higher unemployment, even as annual inflation sits near 3%.
  • The decision was the last under Governor Christian Hawkesby, with Anna Breman taking over on December 1 ahead of her first policy meeting in February 2026.