Overview

• The Monetary Policy Committee voted 4–2 for a 25bp cut, with two members favoring a 50bp move.
• New projections show the OCR at 2.71% in Q4 2025 and 2.59% by September 2026, with inflation seen near the 2% midpoint by mid‑2026.
• The bank said further reductions are possible if medium‑term inflation pressures continue to ease, emphasizing a data‑dependent approach.
• The New Zealand dollar fell about 1.2% to a multi‑month low and swaps repriced higher odds of additional cuts in October and November.
• A Reuters poll now shows most economists expect two more 25bp cuts this year to 2.50%, while RBNZ’s Paul Conway said the uncertainty shock should fade even as tariffs and weak confidence weigh on demand.