Overview
- SBI Research says a 25 basis-point repo cut in September is the best option, warning against a Type 2 error and projecting October CPI near 1.1% on GST rationalisation, base effects and a new CPI series.
- At RBI consultative meetings, most economists reportedly argued for a pause given cooling inflation and strong growth, while market participants are expected to advocate cuts to preserve interest-rate differentials.
- A Financial Express poll found about 85% of 12 experts expect no change in the upcoming policy, with only SBI and CSB Bank calling for a 25 bps reduction and some seeing scope for easing later in the year.
- The MPC meets Sept. 29–30 with a decision due Oct. 1, after three cuts totaling 100 bps earlier in 2025 and an August pause that shifted stance to neutral.
- Brokerage views remain split, with some highlighting benign core inflation and others citing food-price uncertainty, rupee weakness and rising bond yields as reasons to wait.