Overview

• The Reserve Bank of India cautioned that recent U.S. tariff hikes could dampen India's export performance and domestic demand, potentially impacting overall growth.
• India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year has been revised down to 6.5%, reflecting concerns over global trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
• Retail inflation hit a five-year low of 3.34% in March, driven by moderating food prices, creating space for the RBI's recent consecutive rate cuts.
• The central bank highlighted India's relative insulation from global headwinds due to robust domestic consumption, investment, and a favorable monsoon forecast for the farm sector.
• India is poised to benefit from global supply chain realignments and diversified FDI inflows, which could bolster its economic resilience despite external challenges.