Overview
- The Monetary Policy Committee meets December 3–5 with the decision due Friday at 10:00 AM IST, after 100 bps of cuts earlier this year left the repo at 5.50% and policy on hold since August.
- A fresh Economic Times poll shows 12 of 20 economists expect a 25 bps cut to 5.25%, while eight—including SBI Research—see no change, and Barclays shifted to a pause after the GDP release.
- Q2 FY26 real GDP grew 8.2%, the fastest in six quarters, while October CPI fell to about 0.25%, an unprecedented undershoot alongside core inflation near 2.6% excluding gold.
- Analysts widely expect minor forecast tweaks with FY26 inflation edged lower by roughly 0.1–0.2 percentage points and GDP nudged higher by a similar margin, with the stance likely to remain neutral.
- Several economists flag possible open market operations to cushion expected December liquidity tightness from advance tax outflows, with guidance on transmission and future easing in focus.