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3h ago

RBI Sets Oct. 1 Rate Decision as Markets Tip a Pause Over a Cut

Economists expect the committee to hold given softer inflation and rupee fragility, with guidance from Governor Sanjay Malhotra in focus.

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Overview

  • The Monetary Policy Committee concludes on October 1, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra announcing the repo outcome live at 10:00 am on RBI’s YouTube, X and Facebook channels.
  • A Bloomberg poll shows 24 of 38 economists expect the repo rate to stay at 5.5%, while 14 foresee a 25 basis point reduction.
  • The repo stands at 5.5% after 100 bps of cuts earlier this year, and the RBI paused at its August meeting with a neutral, data‑dependent stance.
  • Inflation is near the lower end of the 2%–6% target helped by tax cuts and a strong monsoon, even as the rupee hit a record low and US tariffs rose to 50%, complicating easing.
  • State Bank of India has argued for a quarter‑point cut, and analysts expect growth guidance to stay near 6.5% with potential trimming of inflation projections and dovish commentary.