Overview

• The Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, concludes a three‑day review with a decision due on October 1.
• SBI Research recommends a 25 basis‑point repo cut, arguing inflation is set to stay benign into the next financial year.
• Most forecasters expect rates to stay unchanged, citing US tariffs on Indian exports, geopolitical risks, and ongoing policy transmission.
• GST rationalisation to two slabs is expected to trim headline CPI by roughly 25–50 bps, with some analysts noting scope created by the US Fed’s recent cut.
• The RBI has already lowered the repo rate by 100 bps this year and paused in August, with a few market participants flagging only a small chance of a December trim.