Overview

• The Monetary Policy Committee is meeting in Mumbai from Sept 29 to Oct 1, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra set to announce the outcome at 10:00 a.m. IST on Wednesday.
• The repo rate stands at 5.50% after 100 bps of cuts between February and June, followed by an August pause with a neutral stance to assess transmission.
• Surveys and market commentary point to an unchanged rate, though SBI and Union Bank research argue for a 25 bps “booster” cut given benign price trends.
• Analysts say GST rationalisation from Sept 22 should lower headline CPI by roughly 25–50 bps over coming quarters, with FY26 inflation forecasts drifting near 2.6%.
• External headwinds from U.S. trade measures and rupee pressure feature in deliberations, and several houses flag December as a potential window for any further easing.