Overview

• The Monetary Policy Committee meets September 29–October 1, with the decision due October 1.
• The repo rate stands at 5.5% after 100 bps of cuts earlier this year, following a pause in August.
• SBI Research recommends a 25 bps reduction, while most economists expect the RBI to maintain the current rate and stance.
• GST rationalisation to two slabs is expected to trim headline CPI by roughly 25–50 bps, with some forecasters pegging FY2026 inflation near 2.6%.
• U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and ongoing trade talks, plus the Fed’s recent 25 bps cut, frame the external backdrop as markets digest FII outflows and index declines.