Overview

• Most economists in an Economic Times poll expect the MPC to keep the repo rate at 5.50% on Oct. 1 to preserve policy space after earlier 100 bps cuts and an August pause.
• Citi says the backdrop allows a dovish tilt, projecting either a small ‘insurance’ cut or a dovish pause with guidance to act if needed.
• Nomura assigns a 70% probability to a 25 bps reduction in October, arguing US tariffs could outweigh the recent GST-led consumption boost.
• August consumer inflation was reported well below the 4% target, reinforcing room to ease, though precise readings vary across reports.
• The RBI will release its bi-annual Monetary Policy Report alongside the decision, with several analysts expecting softer inflation projections and steady growth forecasts.