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1h ago

RBI MPC Opens Three-Day Meet With Hold Seen At 5.50% Ahead of Oct. 1 Decision

With inflation easing, policymakers appear set to prioritise caution.

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A woman walks past the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, April 6, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo

Overview

  • Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the MPC outcome on Wednesday at 10 a.m. after deliberations running Sept. 29–Oct. 1 in Mumbai.
  • Most economists expect the repo rate to be kept at 5.50% with a neutral stance and dovish guidance, while a meaningful minority flag scope for a 25 bps cut.
  • SBI and UBI research argue for a 25 bps 'booster' cut now, and houses such as Nomura and Goldman Sachs see room for another 25 bps reduction by December.
  • Headline inflation has moderated near 2% and analysts estimate GST rationalisation could lower CPI by roughly 25–50 bps, with some projections pointing to an unusually low October print.
  • External headwinds from higher U.S. tariffs and visa fee changes, rupee pressure, and the need to assess transmission after 100 bps of cuts earlier this year underpin expectations for a dovish pause.