Overview

• The committee unanimously kept the policy rate unchanged and retained a neutral stance after 100 basis points of cuts earlier this year, stressing a data‑dependent approach.
• The RBI lowered its CPI inflation forecast to 3.1%, with members noting near‑term undershooting and a rise projected from the third quarter.
• Three of six MPC members said there was room to cut in August, but the panel opted to wait for clearer transmission and clarity on trade developments.
• Members referenced reported US actions that could raise tariffs on some Indian exports to as much as 50% from August 27, flagging a risk to external demand and investment.
• Transmission of past easing is still playing out, with a CRR reduction expected next month to add liquidity, while growth is projected at 6.5% with buoyant rural activity and sluggish urban spending.