Overview

• Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the outcome at 10 a.m. IST on Oct. 1, with the repo rate currently at 5.50% after 100 bps of cuts earlier this year and an August pause.
• Most economist polls lean toward holding the policy rate, though banks including Citi, Barclays, Capital Economics, SBI and UBI have flagged a possible 25 bps ‘insurance’ or ‘booster’ cut.
• GST rationalisation to two slabs (5% and 18%) is expected to lower headline CPI by roughly 25–60 bps, with several forecasters now placing FY26 inflation near 2.6%.
• External risks feature prominently as the U.S. imposes 50% tariffs on many Indian exports and higher visa fees, even as the Federal Reserve’s recent 25 bps cut loosens global financial conditions.
• Policy communication and transmission are in focus, with robust pass-through to fresh lending noted; if rates are held, EBLR-linked loans would be unchanged, and markets see scope for a rally if a surprise cut occurs.