Overview
- The Monetary Policy Committee meets September 29–October 1 with the repo rate at 5.50% after three cuts totaling 100 bps earlier this year and an August pause.
- Survey readings tilt toward a hold: an Economic Times poll shows a majority expecting no move, and a Reuters poll finds 45 of 61 economists forecasting no change with a minority seeing a 25 bps cut.
- Citi flags a possible dovish tilt and an ‘insurance’ reduction, while Nomura assigns a 70% probability to a 25 bps cut and a 30% chance of no action.
- Retail inflation has stayed well below the RBI’s 4% target for months, preserving room to ease if the growth outlook weakens.
- The policy calculus weighs GST rate cuts that have lifted consumption against new U.S. tariffs that total 50% and threaten exports.