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32m ago

RBI MPC Begins Three-Day Review With Hold at 5.50% as the Base Case

Soft inflation tempts a cut, with U.S. trade risks keeping forecasts cautious.

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A woman walks past the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, April 6, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo

Overview

  • Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the policy decision on Wednesday, Oct. 1, at 10:00 a.m. IST after the committee’s meeting in Mumbai.
  • Polls show most economists expect no change to the repo rate, though SBI, UBI, Citi, Barclays and Capital Economics have flagged a possible 25 bps ‘insurance’ cut.
  • Headline CPI was about 2.07% in August and GST rationalisation is expected to shave a further 25–50 bps from inflation in coming quarters, strengthening the easing case.
  • Analysts cite U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on Indian exports, higher visa fees and rupee weakness as key growth risks that argue for caution or a dovish pause.
  • Markets have not priced an October cut; commentary may turn more dovish with potential forecast tweaks, and several houses see scope for a follow‑up move by December.