Overview

• Minutes from the October meeting confirm a unanimous pause at 5.50% with a neutral stance, as two members sought an accommodative signal.
• An eight-year-low 1.54% CPI print in September led the RBI to lower its FY26 inflation projection to 2.6%, creating space to support growth.
• The central bank raised its FY26 GDP forecast to 6.8% after a stronger-than-expected 7.8% expansion in Q1 and continued momentum in Q2 indicators.
• Members flagged U.S. tariff and policy measures as material external risks, while noting GST 2.0 reforms could partially cushion any drag.
• With 100 bps of earlier cuts still transmitting and overdose risks cited, the panel deferred easing; economists see a possible 25 bps cut in December, and Governor Malhotra said U.S. tariffs are not a huge concern for a domestically driven economy.