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RBI Holds Policy Rate at 5.50% and Signals Data-Dependent Path to Cuts

Future RBI easing depends on late-August GDP data with global rate moves offering key cues

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Overview

  • The Monetary Policy Committee held the repo rate at 5.50% after implementing 100 basis points of cuts since February.
  • Consumer price inflation eased to 1.55% in July, the lowest since 2017 and well below the RBI’s 2–6% target, creating technical room for further cuts.
  • The RBI adopted a neutral stance, stating that future rate decisions will hinge on incoming GDP data and shifts in global interest rates.
  • Ample liquidity and a scheduled cash reserve ratio reduction next month are expected to support transmission of the current easing cycle into borrowing costs.
  • Corporate bonds in the 2–4 year segment are offering spreads of 65–75 basis points over government bonds and could see compression if easing resumes.