Overview

• The RBI’s three‑day policy meeting runs Sept. 29–Oct. 1, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra set to announce the outcome at 10:00 a.m. IST on Wednesday.
• Most economists expect the repo rate to stay at 5.50%, though polls and research notes describe the decision as a live one with scope for a 25 bps ‘insurance’ move.
• Citi, Barclays, Capital Economics, SBI and others have flagged room for an early cut, citing subdued inflation and downside risks to growth from external shocks.
• GST rationalisation is widely expected to lower CPI by roughly 25–60 bps, with some forecasts placing October inflation near 1.1%, well below the RBI’s 4% target.
• Bond and OIS markets have not priced an immediate cut, and traders anticipate a rally if easing arrives, as U.S. tariffs up to 50% and higher visa fees weigh on the outlook.