Overview
- Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said RBI forecasts show no systematic bias, framing misses as an inevitable global feature of economic prediction.
- The central bank is working toward monthly balance of payments releases after cutting the quarterly publication lag to 60 days from 90, with monthly data expected to be less granular and no timeline given.
- Gupta outlined a multifaceted forecasting toolkit that combines structural and time‑series models, historical patterns, high‑frequency indicators, surveys, and consultations with ministries and analysts.
- She highlighted India’s CPI structure—with food at roughly 46% and prices prone to volatility—as a key constraint on near‑term inflation accuracy, adding that forthcoming MoSPI revisions should help.
- Some analysts contend earlier inflation overestimates limited scope for rate cuts this year; Gupta rejected the suggestion of bias even as projections were revised down repeatedly.