Overview
- The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to reduce the policy rate to 5.25% and kept its stance neutral.
- The RBI lifted its FY26 GDP forecast to 7.3% and reduced its inflation projection to 2%, citing softer price pressures from improved food supplies.
- The central bank scheduled Rs 1 lakh crore of OMOs on December 11 and 18 and launched a three-year $5 billion USD/INR buy-sell swap expected to inject roughly Rs 45,000 crore and lower forward premia.
- Market strategists see equities staying range-bound with near-term gains capped around 2–3%, with autos and real estate poised to benefit as banks face pressure on net interest margins.
- SBI Research calls the easing unusual given strong growth and very low inflation, notes a surge in non-financial corporate bond issuance to Rs 2.2 lakh crore between April and October, and projects growth above 7% in the coming quarters with a full-year outcome near 7.6%.