Overview
- Annual inflation slowed to 3.4% in November, but the trimmed mean stayed at 3.2%, still above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target band.
- Andrew Hauser said the latest figures were helpful but held “not a lot of news,” calling inflation above 3% too high and stressing the board targets the outlook one to two years ahead.
- The RBA will look to the December‑quarter CPI due January 28 and fresh labour data on January 22, with officials saying no single report will dictate policy.
- Markets assign roughly a one‑in‑three chance of a February hike, while major banks are split, with Commonwealth Bank tipping a 25 bp rise to 3.85% and ANZ and Westpac expecting a hold at the current 3.60%.
- Black Friday discounting helped soften the monthly print, yet housing costs such as rents and new dwelling prices remained firm, and recent energy rebate shifts have added volatility to monthly readings.