Overview
- All 38 economists in a Dec. 1–4 Reuters poll expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 3.60% on Dec. 9, with a strong majority projecting no change through 2026.
- A separate Finder survey of 35 experts also points to no move next week, with 33 backing a hold and two saying rates should be lifted.
- October ABS data showed annual inflation at 3.8% and the trimmed mean at 3.3%, reinforcing expectations that policy will stay restrictive.
- Rate path risks have tilted higher, with more than a third of Finder’s panel saying October’s inflation lifted the odds of a hike within six months and futures pricing over a 70% chance of a hike by end-2026.
- Finder’s consumer research indicates sustained rates are curbing holiday spending, with one in three mortgage holders saying a lower cash rate would have meant a more indulgent Christmas and 55% planning to channel any extra cash to travel, renovations and shopping.