Overview
- Melbourne Institute’s October inflation gauge rose to 3.1% year on year with a 0.3% monthly gain, signalling persistent price pressures just above target.
- Q3 trimmed‑mean CPI increased 1.0% quarter on quarter versus the RBA’s 0.6% forecast, a result Governor Michele Bullock labeled a “material miss.”
- Policymakers are widely expected to leave the cash rate at 3.6% at Tuesday’s meeting, with near‑term inflation projections in the Statement on Monetary Policy likely to be revised higher.
- Market pricing now assigns roughly a 7% chance of a November cut and 16% in December, with about 22 basis points of total easing priced by end‑2026.
- Analysts highlight domestic services inflation and elevated unit‑labour costs as concerns, while recent labour data volatility has been downplayed by the RBA.