Overview
- The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 3.6% after three cuts earlier in 2025, citing a cautious policy stance.
- Demand is running slightly above Australia’s potential output, leaving little slack in labour or supply conditions.
- The RBA projects inflation will remain above the 2–3% target until at least mid‑2026.
- Hauser said rate cuts could resume from late 2025 only if disinflation is sustained and productivity and capacity investment strengthen.
- Real business investment has been flat for about 18 months and capex plans point to little or no growth in 2025/26, even as he highlighted Australia’s strong savings, low public debt and robust institutions as support for new investment.