Overview
- Economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate at 3.60% at Tuesday’s final meeting of the year.
- CBA’s new Wage and Labour Insights shows November wages up 0.8% on the month with annual growth at 3.2%, trend employment rising by 26,000 and unemployment at 4.4%.
- ABS data put annual CPI at 3.8% in October with trimmed-mean inflation near 3.3%, and the government notes the expiry of energy bill rebates is contributing to price pressures.
- Governor Michele Bullock has cautioned that more persistent inflation would affect the policy path, keeping open the option of a rate increase if price data stay firm.
- Market pricing assigns non-zero odds to 2026 hikes, yet Westpac expects the RBA to hold for much of next year with tentative cuts pencilled for May and August 2026.