Overview
- A Reuters poll shows 24 of 31 economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on February 3.
- All four major Australian banks now forecast a hike, while Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank still predict the RBA will hold.
- The December-quarter data showed trimmed mean inflation up 0.9% q/q, lifting annual underlying inflation to roughly 3.4%, with headline inflation at 3.8% y/y.
- Roy Morgan estimates a 0.25 percentage point increase could push about 1.3 million households into mortgage stress, and an average borrower would pay roughly $1,300 more per year at that step-up.
- Many analysts see any move as limited for now and note the decision is finely balanced, with some urging a wait-and-see approach even as markets price a hike that would buck the broader global easing trend.