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RBA Holds Cash Rate at 3.85% in 6-3 Vote Split

The decision underscores the bank’s data-driven strategy to verify sustained disinflation using the upcoming June quarter CPI

Overview

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets by maintaining its cash rate at 3.85% after a 6-3 board vote.
  • Governor Michele Bullock said the bank will await full June quarter CPI data due July 30 before considering further easing.
  • Economists in a Reuters poll of 30 respondents forecast a 25 basis-point cut to 3.60% at the August meeting.
  • Retailers and housing groups warned the extended hold could sustain high borrowing costs and slow retail spending and first-home buyer activity.
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand similarly paused its easing cycle at 3.25%, citing economic uncertainty.