Overview
- The Board kept the cash rate at 3.60% in a unanimous decision after Q3 trimmed‑mean inflation jumped 1.0% q/q to 3.0% y/y.
- The November Statement on Monetary Policy lifts forecasts, with trimmed‑mean inflation around 3.2% through mid‑2026 and headline CPI peaking near 3.7% by mid‑2026 before easing toward 2.6% by end‑2027.
- The outlook is conditioned on the cash rate staying about 3.6% through end‑2025 and edging slightly lower in 2026, keeping settings only slightly restrictive.
- The RBA says part of the Q3 surge reflects temporary factors but warns pressures in services and new‑dwelling costs could persist as consumption and housing prove firmer.
- Major banks and markets have pushed back rate‑cut expectations into 2026, with CBA flagging no near‑term easing and the RBA projecting unemployment around 4.4% over the next two years.