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RBA Governor to Face Parliament With September Rate Cut Seen as Unlikely

A small drop in core inflation is expected, reinforcing forecasts for the next rate cut in November.

Overview

  • Governor Michele Bullock appears before the federal parliament’s economics committee on Monday to discuss interest rates, productivity and card payment surcharges.
  • The RBA resumed easing in February, and with a decision due at month’s end, markets broadly anticipate the next reduction at the November meeting.
  • Underlying inflation sits near 2.7%, with economists tipping an August trimmed-mean reading around 2.5%–2.6% on Wednesday, a move viewed as too modest to trigger a cut now.
  • AMP’s Shane Oliver says a trimmed-mean reading closer to about 2.4% would likely be needed to justify a September cut.
  • August labour data showed a 5,400 drop in jobs with unemployment steady at 4.2%, as the Productivity Commission reported a June‑quarter improvement but flagged weak investment as a drag on living standards.