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3h ago

RBA Expected to Hold at 3.60% Next Week as Economists Reassess Timing of Cuts

A firmer August CPI alongside a tight labour market shifts focus to the Q3 inflation print to guide any next move.

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Two women walk next to the Reserve Bank of Australia headquarters in central Sydney, Australia February 6, 2018. REUTERS/Daniel Munoz/File Photo

Overview

  • All 39 economists in a Reuters poll forecast no change at the September 30 meeting, matching a unanimous Finder survey of 32 experts.
  • August’s monthly CPI quickened to 3.0% year on year from 2.8% in July, reinforcing the central bank’s data-dependent stance.
  • Most Reuters respondents still see the cash rate at 3.35% by year-end, with 32 of 39 projecting a 25 basis point cut and seven now expecting no further move.
  • Major banks diverge on timing, with ANZ, CBA and Westpac pointing to a November cut while NAB projects no reduction until May.
  • The RBA has already lowered rates three times in 2025 and mortgage borrowers are likely to wait for further relief until quarterly inflation confirms sustained disinflation.