Overview
- Deputy governor Andrew Hauser said the softer November print was helpful but largely expected and offered “not a lot of news” for policymakers.
- Annual headline inflation slowed to 3.4% in November while the trimmed mean held at 3.2%, still above the RBA’s 2–3% target band.
- Hauser reiterated that rate cuts are unlikely in the near term and stressed the board’s focus on inflation outcomes one to two years ahead.
- Markets are pricing roughly a one‑in‑three chance of a February rate increase, with the Australian dollar and bond yields little changed after the data.
- Major banks are split on February, with Commonwealth Bank tipping a 25bp hike and ANZ and Westpac expecting a hold, as analysts flag Black Friday discounts versus persistent housing‑driven pressures.