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RBA Cuts Cash Rate to 3.6% and Flags Data-Dependent Easing

Against a backdrop of cooling inflation paired with a softer labour market, the bank downgraded its growth outlook in favour of a meeting-by-meeting policy path.

Overview

  • The Reserve Bank unanimously cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, marking the third reduction of 2025.
  • Updated forecasts trimmed the assumed trend productivity growth from 1.0% to about 0.7%, lowering medium-term GDP and living-standards projections.
  • Headline inflation eased to 2.1% in the June quarter and the trimmed mean fell to 2.7%, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.
  • Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, ANZ and NAB will pass the full 0.25% cut through to variable home loan customers from late August.
  • Swaps markets price further rate reductions to near 3.1% by early 2026, though the RBA will remain strictly data-dependent on future moves.