Overview

• Dalio estimates federal spending at about $7 trillion versus roughly $5 trillion in revenue, forecasting heavy new Treasury issuance.
• He says investors are questioning the safety of U.S. government bonds, with some reallocating funds into gold.
• He warns the Fed faces a stark choice between allowing higher rates that could trigger a debt crisis or buying debt in ways that would weaken the dollar.
• He highlights increased state intervention in markets, pointing to the reported 10% government stake in Intel as a shift toward control-oriented policy.
• He questions the central bank’s autonomy, alleging moves that threaten its independence, including the reported removal of Governor Lisa Cook.