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Ray Dalio Warns U.S. Could Face Debt Crisis by Autumn 2029

He says large deficits, a $40 trillion debt stock, rising interest costs, a pullback by foreign buyers would force Treasury yields higher, raising borrowing costs.

Der Milliardär Ray Dalio macht sich Sorgen um die weltweite Verschuldung.
Ray Dalio bereitet sich auf eine Schuldenkrise vor.
Star-Investor Ray Dalio sieht in den Spannungen zwischen den USA und China auch eine finanzielle Dimension.

Overview

  • Ray Dalio made the warning in interviews this week, saying the United States could hit a debt-driven crisis within three years if current trends continue.
  • The U.S. public debt crossed $40 trillion in August 2026 and annual interest payments now top $1 trillion, which Dalio says is crowding out other federal spending.
  • Dalio and analysts say the government’s heavy FY2026 financing need, shown by CBO estimates of roughly $7.4 trillion in spending versus $5.6 trillion in revenue, increases demand for new Treasury issuance.
  • He flagged a retreat by major foreign holders such as China and Japan as a key risk, because fewer buyers would force the Treasury to offer higher yields to sell new debt.
  • Dalio also warned that the AI investment boom is heavily debt-financed, which could cause overinvestment in tech and amplify market stress if credit tightens.