Ray Dalio Says Fiat Devaluation, Not AI, Defined 2025 as Gold Trounced U.S. Stocks
He warns that a weaker dollar can make nominal gains look stronger than they are.
Overview
- Gold returned 65% in dollar terms in 2025 versus 18% for the S&P 500, a 47‑point gap, and the S&P fell 28% when measured in gold.
- Dalio says European, Chinese, U.K., and Japanese equities beat U.S. stocks by about 23%, 21%, 19%, and 10%.
- He attributes the divergence to fiscal and monetary stimulation, productivity changes, and large shifts in asset allocations away from U.S. markets.
- Dalio argues investors also earned better returns in non‑U.S. bonds than in U.S. bonds and cash.
- He expects ongoing rebalancing and diversification away from U.S. assets if currency weakness persists.