Overview

• Dalio argued that soaring U.S. debt levels are not reflected in asset prices and could precipitate a sharp market downturn.
• A recent U.S. Treasury report forecasts $1 trillion in third-quarter borrowing and $590 billion in the fourth, marking accelerated debt issuance for 2025.
• The updated guidance represents a major shift from Dalio’s 2022 recommendation of just 1–2% Bitcoin exposure to a combined 15% hard-asset allocation.
• He remains strongly biased toward gold, holds only a small Bitcoin stake and leaves the precise balance between the two up to individual investors.
• Dalio warned that another round of quantitative easing or government takeover of the Federal Reserve could act as a catalyst for a severe market sell-off.