Overview

• On September 28, the Paraná governor posted an AI-produced clip portraying himself as a Jedi cutting down stormtroopers labeled with problems like red ink, lack of investment, perks, unemployment and crime, capped by the “Paraná model” slogan and the message that what worked in the state can work for Brazil.
• He has not formally launched a campaign, with PSD leader Gilberto Kassab cited as considering him for 2026, while Estadão reports he is determined to run.
• State-level backing is a key asset, with polling showing roughly 85% approval for his administration in August.
• National visibility still lags, as a September Quaest survey found 42% of Brazilians do not know him, down from 51% in January.
• Consolidation on the right remains uncertain as Tarcísio de Freitas loses ground in surveys, 33% of Bolsonaro supporters tell Quaest they would not vote for Ratinho, and he presents a more moderate profile that has avoided endorsing a broad amnesty sought by bolsonaristas.