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Rate-Cut Bets Lift Stocks as France's Political Flux Keeps Bond Yields Elevated

Weak U.S. data have shifted policy expectations toward cuts, overshadowing France’s political churn in equity trading.

Overview

  • Wall Street notched fresh records on Tuesday and European markets opened higher on Wednesday, with the CAC 40 later closing up 0.15%.
  • A surprise 0.1% monthly drop in U.S. producer prices in August reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve easing at the September meeting.
  • Traders leaned toward multiple 2025 cuts on CME FedWatch after soft labor data, including just 22,000 August payroll gains and a BLS revision showing 911,000 fewer jobs for April 2024–March 2025.
  • French equities proved resilient, but 10‑year OAT yields hovered near 3.46%–3.47% and the spread to Bunds stayed above 80 basis points as investors watch Fitch’s review on Friday.
  • Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu prime minister after François Bayrou’s failed confidence vote, while stock moves included Alstom’s jump on a ~€1 billion NJ Transit order and recent declines in meal‑voucher issuers on reform‑delay risks.