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Rare Stratospheric Warming to Disrupt Polar Vortex, Raising Odds of Early December Cold Across Central and Northern U.S.

Forecasters say any surface impacts will likely materialize after a lag, with the clearest effects showing up in early December.

National Grid workers respond to a downed utility pole in Buffalo, New York, on December 27, 2022. - The monster storm that killed dozens in the United States over the Christmas weekend continued to inflict misery on New York state and air travelers nationwide Tuesday, as stories emerged of families trapped for days during the "blizzard of the century."
Thermometer on snow shows low temperatures - zero. Low temperatures in degrees Celsius and fahrenheit. Cold winter weather - zero celsius thirty two farenheit.
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Overview

  • The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center favors below-normal temperatures for the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic beginning around November 25 and persisting into early December.
  • Meteorologists expect the stratosphere to warm sharply in late November, a disturbance that can weaken or displace the polar vortex and open the door for Arctic air to move south.
  • Chicago forecasters project an arctic shot around Thanksgiving with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, short of the more extreme cold typical of midwinter events.
  • Great Lakes outlets caution that cold air over unfrozen waters could trigger heavy lake-effect snow bands, increasing risks for hazardous travel and disruptions.
  • Experts note November events of this kind are rare—comparable cases were recorded in 1958 and 1968—and say La Niña and the Madden‑Julian Oscillation may modulate impacts, leaving the magnitude and placement of cold uncertain.