Overview
- Observations and model guidance show Arctic stratospheric temperatures rising roughly 20–25°C as circumpolar winds collapse toward zero with brief reversals possible.
- The timing stands out for November, with experts noting one of the earliest significant polar vortex disruptions in the satellite era.
- Forecasts suggest a wavier jet stream could develop within weeks, raising the odds of colder, snowier spells in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, though the exact regions remain uncertain.
- Early-December outlooks lean toward a West Coast ridge that keeps California milder and quieter while storm tracks favor British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.
- Researchers warn that aging polar‑orbiting satellites are creating data gaps that hinder real‑time monitoring and may reduce forecast confidence for this event.