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2h ago

Rare January Subtropical Disturbance Possible in Eastern Pacific This Weekend

Forecast models hint at a brief low near Baja with experts stressing a very low chance of development.

Strong winds whip a palm tree on an empty beach during the passage of tropical storm Beryl in Progreso, on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, on July 5, 2024. Beryl weakened to a tropical storm Friday after hitting Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane, with fierce winds causing material damage but no injuries along the tourist-rich Yucatan Peninsula. (Photo by HUGO BORGES / AFP) (Photo by HUGO BORGES/AFP via Getty Images)
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Overview

  • AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva estimates roughly a 10% chance that any system forms and says it would most likely be subtropical due to cool waters.
  • As of Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center was not tracking any disturbances in the Eastern or Central Pacific or the Atlantic.
  • FOX Forecast Center notes no recorded instances of January tropical development in the Eastern Pacific and flags potential signals as early as Saturday near Baja California.
  • Meteorologists cite Canadian and European model runs showing a weak, short‑lived system, with temporarily lower wind shear under a West Coast ridge offering a narrow window.
  • Experts expect minimal to no impacts to Mexico or California, with any formation likely to fade quickly over cold water.