Raoul Pal Links Bitcoin and SaaS Selloff to U.S. Liquidity Squeeze

Overview

• He cites near-identical charts for Bitcoin and the UBS SaaS Index, signaling a shared macro driver across long‑duration assets.
• The Federal Reserve’s reverse repo cash buffer was largely exhausted by 2024, and the Treasury’s mid‑2024 TGA rebuild pulled liquidity from markets.
• Recent government shutdowns saw the Treasury add to the TGA instead of drawing it down, intensifying the funding squeeze.
• Gold’s rally has absorbed marginal capital that might otherwise support crypto and high‑growth tech, further pressuring risk assets.
• Pal characterizes the downturn as a temporary air pocket and expects relief from partial TGA drawdowns, potential easing of bank leverage rules, and rate cuts rather than shifts tied to Fed chair politics.