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Raman Pulls Ahead in Tight Los Angeles Mayoral Runoff

Polls and prediction markets lean toward Raman, leaving the pre‑mail‑ballot period and an Oct. 13 debate as the crucial window for persuading undecided voters.

FILE - Los Angeles mayoral candidate Nithya Raman talks to reporters after a campaign event in Los Angeles, June 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
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An image collage containing 2 images, Image 1 shows Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass speaks into a microphone at the Jewish Los Angeles Mayoral Forum, Image 2 shows Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman speaks during the Jewish Los Angeles Mayoral Forum at the Skirball Cultural Center
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Overview

  • Prediction markets priced Nithya Raman roughly 58% to Karen Bass’s 42% and a mid‑September UC Berkeley/LA Times poll showed Raman at 39% and Bass at 28% with about one‑third of voters undecided.
  • Raman defended her past comment calling Israel’s actions in Gaza “genocide” at a Jewish community forum Tuesday night, prompting concern among some attendees and putting reactions from Jewish voters into sharper focus.
  • Both campaigns report about $2.5 million raised each while independent‑expenditure groups and major donors have poured millions more into ads and turnout programs that neither campaign directly controls.
  • County elections officials will begin sending mail ballots in early October and the two candidates will meet for a one‑hour, commercial‑free debate on Oct. 13 hosted by NBC4 and Telemundo 52.
  • The race remains built on clear demographic splits and policy liabilities: Raman leads younger and progressive voters, Bass holds older voters, and Bass’s handling of homelessness and the deadly 2025 Palisades fire is a central campaign weakness.